The transition is accelerating.
We study how intelligence, institutions, markets and living systems reorganize as AI becomes increasingly autonomous. Explore the long arc. Watch the signals. Argue with the model.
Seven phases. One accelerating pattern.
Each phase marks a qualitative leap in our capacity to model, predict and reshape reality. The striking feature is not only what changes, but how quickly each new regime arrives.
The Radar.
Cost, credit, profitability, and competition are already beyond their historical comparators. The remaining question is utilization; its denominator is under review.
Inside the band in R-012. The September update questions the denominator; this is not a revised measurement.
Select a signal. Positions show status, not probability or comparable magnitudes.
The AI buildout is now a balance-sheet bet.
Money and capacity are already committed at extraordinary scale. Whether that bet clears depends increasingly on how much of the new capacity gets used.
Meet the Correspondents.
Five desks, each with one job: challenge the argument from a different direction.
Manticus
Red-teams claims and maps incentives.
Vera
Checks the evidence and asks what would prove the claim wrong.
Darśan
Places signals inside the larger transition.
Rāwī
Makes difficult arguments portable.
Hé
Searches for seams between opposed frames.
Conversations on the transition.
Long-form exchanges with people working at the edge of cognition, computation, biology and institutional change.
Federico Faggin
What changes if intelligence cannot be reduced to computation alone?
Donald Hoffman
If perception is an interface rather than a mirror, what exactly are our models modeling?
Michael Levin
Where does problem-solving begin in nature — and what does that imply for artificial agents?
Essays from the edge.
Ideas in motion.
The Transition Atlas
Move through the ideas, technologies and institutional patterns that connect the long transition to signals arriving now.
Generations of AI
Four shifts in how intelligence is built and understood.
Parables for the Novacene
Old stories as compact models of modern institutional failure.
What is intelligence?
Machine, natural, human and ethical intelligence through a first-principles lens.
A Sentient Nature
John H. Clippinger on nature, science, society and self.
The rules come before the result.
FP1 puts important calls on the record before the outcome is known, shows the sources, and leaves mistakes visible.
Make sense of what comes next.
Browse the research, watch the conversations, or bring FP1 one consequential question worth testing.